Here’s my definitive draft pick tier list — built entirely on vibes and gut feeling after running through countless mock drafts. No draft ever goes exactly to plan, but picking in a spot that feels right can be the key to building a dominant fantasy football team.
S Tier
3rd Pick
The 3rd pick is honestly my favorite. It lets you get that top value pick in the first and then sets you up at the bottom of the second and the top of the 3rd. You can kind of set the tone for what the turn does and there is a close amount of time in between picks. Plus none of the jitters of having the first pick.
12th Pick
For these later picks, the older I get I love being in this spot for a couple of reasons. The first is that you are right at the turn at the end of the first round going into the top of the second which allows you to double dip. Two fantastic running backs just sitting there? No problem. A top running back and a top wide receiver. Don’t mind if I do. The math is simple since no one is in between you and you don’t risk losing out on the guy you have your heart set on. The 12th pick is definitely a “get your guy” kind of spot. Also, In recent years the 2nd round has been a bit murky so it allows you to go ahead and get the player you want. Lastly, I feel like it helps you see the field clearer since you are limited to the turn and can see what’s coming.
10th Pick
If you haven’t picked up on it, I like being near the turns. The 10th pick is pretty much like the 3rd pick. If you like the back half of the draft it’s a spot where you can still get a top 1st rounder if the board falls right and most certainly your guy in the 2nd that won’t come back to you. Same deal with setting the tone for what the turn does.
A Tier
2nd Pick & 11th Pick
These picks are so similar in my head so I’m lumping them here together. I think honestly it comes down to how you feel personally and whether you like picking at the top or bottom of a round. For me, it’s a coin flip and I can go either way. If you have the 2nd pick, you get that big value pick after the 1st. This year the consensus seems to be JaMarr Chase so you’re probably grabbing Bijan Robinson or Saquon Barkley but then you miss out a lot of that second round talent. If you go 11th, it’s like those later picks at the first and second round turn where you can get two strong guys almost back to back.
B Tier
1st Pick
Congratulations! You have the honor of picking 1st overall… maybe it’s not the best after all?
I hate being that guy but I’ll go ahead and say it, the number 1 overall pick is overrated. It gets so much hype because you get to draft the consensus overall player all the “experts” tell you is a sure fire thing. What if I told you it rarely pans out that way by the end of the season? We don’t even have to look back that far. CMC was the consensus #1 overall but would miss a huge chunk of the season. Sure, that was the 49ers maybe not disclosing an injury properly but if you look back even slightly further and it’s the same case. Justin Jefferson in 2023, missed time to injury. Jonathan Taylor in 2022 also would miss time. Let’s also not forget the year Le’Veon Bell held out only to go be terrible on the Jets. Of course you can’t pick based on the fear of an injury and in most cases the guy you pick 1st overall is going to be great. Personally, I’ll probably pass and let someone else be excited over it. The last thing I’ll mention is that you have to watch a lot of talent disappear in the second round while things get back to you which can be tough.
C Tier
4th Pick
This is where things start to get less than ideal for me. The top three picks have all gone and now things start to get more ambiguous. You can honestly start taking a bunch of different guys here depending on how you want to try and shape your draft. Because of this, it can be a bit tough to stick to a draft strategy. Of the C tier picks, the 4th is my preferred spot.
5th Pick
The 5th pick is slightly worse than the 4th. You lose some of that excitement and you are just barely on the edge of those trash middle picks. You have to think more about who can come back to you and who you might need to take a chance at.
9th Pick
This pick suffers from not being early enough but also not being as close to the turn as I would like. This one is certainly not the worst but you can’t really dictate much here unless you go crazy and start making weird quarterback or tight end picks. I guess the one thing these middle picks have is the potential for chaos. If that’s your thing, go for this one. I’ll be picking elsewhere wondering what the f*** you’re doing.
8th Pick
The 8th pick for some reason doesn’t do much for me. It’s just kind of there. I’ll pick here if I have to but would rather be closer to the turn with pick 9.
D Tier
7th Pick
The only good thing about being in the 7 slot is that it is marginally better than 6 for some reason…
6th Pick
You have to be an absolute dawg to like picking right in the middle. This pick is easily the least sexy of them all and deserves the D Tier ranking. Whenever I draft here I always feel like I get caught up in positional runs or that if I want a specific guy I have to “reach” to get him. As a result it’s easy to get lost here and maybe make some picks you will regret later. Last year I picked from this spot in the majority of my leagues purely because of my bad luck.
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